Roth or Traditional?
The honest answer depends on one unknowable: your tax rate in retirement vs now. Instead of making you guess a winner, we solve the breakeven rate and show why most people land on Traditional.
In short
Updated for tax year 2026 · June 2026Roth and Traditional break even when your retirement tax rate equals your current marginal rate. Here is the part most calculators skip. Even in the same bracket, your withdrawals are taxed at your effective rate, not your top rate, because they refill the brackets from zero. So at equal brackets, Traditional usually wins. Roth only pulls ahead if you expect higher taxes later.
Common questions
At what tax rate does Roth beat Traditional?⌄
Roth beats Traditional only when your tax rate in retirement is higher than your current marginal rate. At equal rates the two tie. Below your current marginal rate, Traditional comes out ahead.
Why does Traditional usually win even in the same tax bracket?⌄
Because the two rates aren't the same kind. Your Traditional deduction saves tax at your marginal rate today. Your withdrawals later are taxed at your effective rate, which is lower, since they fill the brackets starting from zero. Same bracket, different rate, Traditional ahead.
Does this account for state taxes?⌄
No. These figures are federal only. State tax can change the answer, especially if you'll retire in a lower-tax state than the one you work in now, which favors Traditional even more.
Built and reviewed by the EverydayBudd editorial team. Every figure on this page is reproduced in automated tests against published IRS data before it ships, and the tax figures use 2026 brackets and limits.