Quick Sizing Result: What the BTU Number on Your Screen Actually Means
A greenhouse heating load estimate tells you how many BTU/hr (or kW) of heat your system must deliver on the coldest expected night to hold the inside temperature your crop needs. If the calculator returns 250,000 BTU/hr, that is the minimum furnace or boiler output required—not the average load, not the seasonal total, but the peak-night demand that sets your equipment size.
The most common sizing mistake is using the average winter temperature instead of the design-night low. A greenhouse in zone 6 may average 25 °F in January, but the design low is 0 °F. Size your heater to the average and the crop freezes on the one night that matters most. This calculator uses your design outdoor temperature so the furnace you buy actually covers the worst case.
Heat-Loss Drivers: Surface Area, U-Value, and the Temperature Gap
Greenhouse heat loss follows a single core equation published in the Purdue University greenhouse heating guide:
Q = A × U × ΔT
Q = heat loss (BTU/hr), A = exposed surface area (ft²), U = overall heat-transfer coefficient (BTU/hr·ft²·°F), ΔT = inside temp minus outside design temp (°F).
Surface area (A) is not floor area—it is the total exposed envelope: roof panels, sidewalls, end walls, and any exposed foundation. A 30 ft × 96 ft quonset greenhouse has roughly 5,800 ft² of envelope even though the floor is only 2,880 ft². Using floor area instead of envelope area under-sizes the heater by 40–50 %.
U-value depends on covering material. Single-layer polyethylene runs about 1.15 BTU/hr·ft²·°F; double-poly with an air gap drops to roughly 0.70; twin-wall polycarbonate sits near 0.65; and glass ranges from 1.10 (single pane) down to 0.60 for double-glazed units. Switching from single poly to double poly on the same greenhouse can cut heat loss—and fuel cost—by nearly 40 %.
Infiltration: The Cold Air You Cannot See Leaking In
The Q = A × U × ΔT formula covers conduction through the covering. It does not account for cold air leaking through gaps, vents, doors, and fan openings. On a windy night, infiltration can add 25–50 % to the conductive load depending on how tight the structure is.
A common shortcut is to multiply the conductive loss by an infiltration factor: 1.0–1.1 for a tight double-poly house with sealed joints, 1.25 for an average single-poly house, and 1.4–1.5 for an older glass house with loose laps and worn weatherstripping. The calculator applies this factor so your final BTU/hr figure includes both conduction and air exchange losses.
Reducing infiltration is the cheapest efficiency gain available. Sealing poly overlaps with greenhouse tape, installing inlet baffles on exhaust-fan shutters, and weather-stripping doors can knock 10–15 % off the heating bill without touching the covering or the furnace.
Cold-Night Scenario: Sizing a Heater for a 30 × 96 ft Double-Poly House
Greenhouse: 30 ft × 96 ft quonset, double-poly covering (U = 0.70), envelope area 5,800 ft². Inside set point: 60 °F. Design outdoor low: 0 °F. Infiltration factor: 1.15 (tight double-poly).
| Step | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|
| ΔT | 60 − 0 | 60 °F |
| Conductive loss | 5,800 × 0.70 × 60 | 243,600 BTU/hr |
| Total with infiltration | 243,600 × 1.15 | 280,140 BTU/hr |
| Equivalent in kW | 280,140 ÷ 3,412 | 82 kW |
A 300,000 BTU/hr unit heater gives a small safety margin above the 280k peak. If propane costs $2.50/gal (91,500 BTU/gal at 80 % furnace efficiency), one hour at full output burns about 3.8 gallons—$9.60/hr. Over a 10-hour cold night that is roughly $96 in fuel, a number worth knowing before you commit to a crop that needs 60 °F all winter.
Fuel-Cost Back-of-Napkin: Translating BTU/hr Into a Monthly Bill
Peak load tells you the biggest heater you need; seasonal cost tells you whether you can afford to run it. A rough seasonal estimate multiplies peak load by the number of heating hours and adjusts for the fact that most hours are milder than design night:
Seasonal fuel ≈ (Peak BTU/hr × HDD × 24) ÷ (ΔTdesign × Furnace eff. × Fuel BTU/unit)
HDD = heating degree-days for your location (base 60 °F or 65 °F, match your crop set point). Local climate data is available from the National Weather Service.
For the 30 × 96 house above, in a location with 4,500 HDD (base 60) and propane at $2.50/gal: seasonal propane ≈ (280,140 × 4,500 × 24) ÷ (60 × 0.80 × 91,500) ≈ 6,900 gallons ≈ $17,250 for the heating season. That number decides whether you grow warm-season transplants all winter or shut the house down and wait for spring.
Sizing Mistakes That Freeze Crops or Waste Fuel Money
- Using floor area instead of envelope area. The roof and walls lose heat, not the floor slab. A quonset greenhouse has roughly twice the envelope area of its floor footprint. Plugging floor area into the formula returns a heater half the size you actually need.
- Sizing to the average winter temperature instead of the design low. A heater matched to the average night handles 80 % of nights fine. The other 20 %—including the coldest—it falls short. Crops do not average out frost damage; one night below threshold can kill a bench of transplants worth thousands of dollars.
- Oversizing by doubling the calculated load “just in case.” A furnace twice the peak load short-cycles: it fires, heats the house fast, shuts off, and repeats. Short-cycling wastes fuel on startup losses, creates uneven temperature distribution, and wears out ignition components. Size to 10–20 % above calculated peak, not 100 %.
From Heating Load to Capacity Plan and Full-Season Budget
The heating load sets your equipment size; the next question is what goes inside the heated space. The Greenhouse Area & Capacity Calculator converts your bench layout into plant counts so you can weigh fuel cost against production revenue. For field crops that feed into a greenhouse transplant pipeline, the Crop Yield Estimator projects downstream harvest value. The Seed & Fertilizer Rate Calculator and the Irrigation Scheduling Calculator round out the input budget for crops grown under cover.
Heating-load estimates use simplified steady-state assumptions and do not replace a professional HVAC engineer’s analysis for large or complex structures. Actual fuel consumption depends on weather patterns, thermostat management, equipment condition, and building tightness. Use the output as a planning benchmark and verify equipment selection with your greenhouse supplier or extension engineer.