Visualize Flood, Fire & Storm Risk by City
Compare relative natural disaster risk exposure between US cities. Analyze flood risk, wildfire risk, and combined hazard indices based on historical patterns.
Visualize Natural Disaster Risk
Select a city to see relative natural disaster risk indices including flood risk, wildfire risk, and combined exposure scores. Optionally compare with a second city.
Note: This tool uses static risk indices based on historical data. It does NOT provide real-time alerts, emergency advice, or insurance recommendations. For informational purposes only.
Houston floods. California burns. Florida gets hurricanes. Every region has something. The question isn't whether a city has natural disaster risk—it's what kind, how often, and how severe. This tool compares flood and wildfire exposure between cities so you can see the trade-off you're making. Moving from Miami (high flood) to Phoenix (high wildfire) doesn't reduce your risk; it changes the type. Moving from either to Denver actually does reduce exposure—but Denver has its own issues (hail, altitude fires). The combined hazard index gives you one number to compare, then the breakdown shows where that number comes from.
Risk isn't a reason to avoid places entirely. It's a reason to understand what you're signing up for and prepare accordingly.
Combined Hazard Score: What Two Cities Are Facing
The combined score blends flood risk, wildfire risk, and exposure factors into a single 0-100 number. Higher means more overall natural hazard exposure. But two cities with identical scores can face completely different threats.
How the score is built
Example: Same score, different risks
Houston, TX: Combined 56
- Flood risk: 78 (very high)
- Wildfire risk: 15 (very low)
- Profile: Flood-dominant
Sacramento, CA: Combined 54
- Flood risk: 35 (moderate)
- Wildfire risk: 65 (high)
- Profile: Wildfire-dominant
Similar combined scores, completely different preparation needs. Houston homeowners need flood insurance and sump pumps. Sacramento homeowners need fire-resistant landscaping and air purifiers for smoke season.
The hazard weighting defaults to 50/50 flood/wildfire. If you're more concerned about one hazard type, you can adjust the weighting to make the combined score reflect your priorities.
Flood Risk vs Wildfire Risk Trade-Offs
Most of the US faces either flood risk or wildfire risk—rarely both at high levels. Understanding which you're trading into matters for insurance, home maintenance, and daily life.
High flood risk cities
Houston, Miami, New Orleans, Tampa, Jacksonville. Coastal areas, river cities, and low-lying metros. Floods happen from hurricanes, tropical storms, and heavy rain overwhelming drainage. Insurance is expensive and often mandatory. Damage can be catastrophic but usually isn't total—water damage repairs, not total loss.
High wildfire risk cities
Los Angeles, San Diego, Phoenix, Boise, Sacramento. Western states with dry vegetation, drought conditions, and wildland-urban interface zones. Fires happen suddenly and can result in total property loss. Insurance is increasingly unavailable in high-risk zones. Smoke affects air quality for weeks even if your property isn't directly threatened.
Lower risk alternatives
Salt Lake City, Denver, Omaha, Kansas City, Pittsburgh. Inland, elevated, or humid enough to avoid most wildfires; far enough from coasts and major rivers to avoid most floods. Not zero risk—no city is—but substantially lower on both hazards.
The "other hazards" caveat
This tool covers flood and wildfire—the two most common property-damage hazards. It doesn't cover earthquakes (California, Pacific Northwest), tornadoes (Midwest, South), hurricanes directly (though flood risk captures much of this), or winter storms. Low flood + low wildfire doesn't mean low overall risk.
When comparing cities, look at both individual hazard scores. A city with 45 flood and 45 wildfire faces different challenges than one with 80 flood and 10 wildfire, even if combined scores are similar.
Insurance and Property Value Implications
Risk scores translate directly to money. High-risk areas have higher insurance costs, sometimes insurance unavailability, and increasingly, impacts on property values and mortgage availability.
Flood insurance reality
FEMA flood insurance costs $500-$3,000+/year depending on zone and coverage. In designated flood zones, lenders require it. Outside flood zones, it's optional—but 25% of flood claims come from outside designated zones.
Private flood insurance is sometimes cheaper but not always available. Budget $1,000-$2,000/year for properties in moderate-to-high flood areas.
Wildfire insurance crisis
Major insurers are canceling policies in high-risk wildfire zones, particularly in California. State FAIR plans exist as last resort but cost significantly more and cover less.
Some homes are becoming effectively uninsurable. Before buying in wildfire zones, verify insurance availability—not just current policy, but whether it will renew.
Property value impacts
Research shows properties in high-risk areas are starting to appreciate slower or depreciate relative to safer areas. Buyers increasingly factor climate risk into offers. A home that seems underpriced might be priced correctly once risk is included.
Mortgage considerations
Some lenders are tightening requirements in high-risk areas. Properties that can't obtain insurance may not qualify for conventional mortgages. This can affect resale value and financing options.
Before committing to a high-risk area, get actual insurance quotes and verify coverage availability. The risk score tells you the hazard; the insurance market tells you whether that hazard is practically manageable.
Living With Risk (Preparation vs Avoidance)
High risk doesn't automatically mean "don't live there." Millions of people live in flood zones and fire-prone areas. The question is whether you're prepared to manage the risk or whether you'd rather avoid it.
Preparation approach
Accept the risk, budget for insurance, take mitigation steps. For floods: elevate utilities, install sump pumps, keep valuables off ground floors. For wildfires: maintain defensible space, use fire-resistant materials, have evacuation plans. This works if you're willing to invest time and money in ongoing preparation.
Avoidance approach
Prioritize lower-risk areas in your search. Accept trade-offs (maybe less desirable weather or job markets) for peace of mind. This works if climate anxiety would affect your quality of life, or if you're on a fixed income and can't absorb unexpected disaster costs.
Hybrid approach
Choose a moderate-risk city but select a lower-risk neighborhood within it. Many high-risk cities have pockets of lower risk—elevated areas in flood cities, urban cores away from wildland in fire-prone metros. You get city benefits without maximum exposure.
The renter advantage
Renters have more flexibility. If a neighborhood floods, you can move when your lease ends. You need renter's insurance (cheap) but not property insurance. This makes living in higher-risk areas more viable for renters than owners—you can enjoy the location without the same financial exposure.
Neither approach is wrong. Some people thrive in beautiful but risky locations with proper preparation. Others can't relax knowing their home could flood or burn. Know yourself.
When Historical Risk Data Falls Short
These risk scores are based on historical data—what's happened in the past. Climate change is making historical data increasingly unreliable for predicting future risk.
- 1.Wildfires are spreading to new areas. Places that never burned are now burning. Colorado, New Mexico, and even humid states are seeing unprecedented fire activity. Historical "low risk" might not mean future low risk.
- 2.Flood patterns are changing. "100-year floods" are happening every few years in some areas. Rainfall intensity is increasing even as average precipitation stays stable. Infrastructure designed for old weather patterns fails more often.
- 3.FEMA maps lag reality. Flood zone maps are often 10-20 years old. Development upstream increases downstream flood risk. A property outside the official flood zone might actually flood regularly now.
- 4.Compound events are new. Wildfires followed by heavy rain causing mudslides. Back-to-back hurricanes. Heat waves that dry out vegetation before fire season. Historical data doesn't capture these combinations well.
Use these scores as a starting point, not gospel. Research climate projections for regions you're considering. Ask locals about recent events—they'll tell you things the data doesn't capture.
Risk Questions Worth Asking
What about hurricanes, tornadoes, and earthquakes?
This tool focuses on flood and wildfire—the most common property-damage hazards. Hurricanes contribute to flood risk scores. Tornadoes and earthquakes aren't included directly. For complete hazard assessment, research FEMA's National Risk Index which covers 18 natural hazard types.
Can I get a score for a specific address?
This tool provides city-level comparison. For address-specific flood risk, check FEMA's Flood Map Service Center. For address-specific fire risk, check First Street Foundation's Risk Factor. City scores are useful for narrowing down options; address scores are essential before buying.
How often do these scores update?
Underlying data typically updates annually. FEMA flood maps update less frequently—sometimes decades between revisions. If a major disaster recently hit an area, current conditions might be worse than scores indicate. Recent events matter.
Should I avoid all high-risk areas?
Not necessarily. Many desirable places have elevated risk—that's partly why they're desirable (coastal views, mountain settings). High risk means higher preparation costs and more planning, not automatic avoidance. The question is whether benefits outweigh costs for your situation.
What's the difference between hazard and exposure?
Hazard is the probability and severity of events (will it flood? how bad?). Exposure is how many people and properties are affected (are there houses in the flood zone?). A remote area might have high hazard but low exposure—floods happen but few people are there. Urban areas often have moderate hazard but high exposure.
Where does this data come from?
FEMA's National Risk Index, USDA Forest Service wildfire risk assessments, NOAA historical weather data, and state-level hazard maps. All public data compiled for comparison purposes.
Sources
- •FEMA National Risk Index: hazards.fema.gov/nri
- •FEMA Flood Map Service Center: msc.fema.gov
- •USDA Forest Service Wildfire Risk: wildfirerisk.org
For Educational Purposes Only - Not Professional Advice
This calculator provides estimates for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute travel, financial, legal, or professional advice. Results are based on the information you provide and general guidelines that may not account for your individual circumstances. Costs, fees, and regulations change frequently. Always consult with a qualified licensed moving company or relocation specialist for advice specific to your situation. Information should be verified with official FMCSA.gov sources.
Frequently Asked Questions
Common questions about natural disaster risk indices and how to interpret them.
What do these natural disaster risk indices represent?
These indices are numerical scores (0-100) that represent the relative historical risk of natural hazards in a city. Higher scores indicate greater historical exposure to hazards like floods or wildfires. They are based on historical patterns, not real-time conditions or future predictions. A score of 50 represents roughly average risk compared to other US cities.
Does this tool provide real-time alerts or forecasts?
No. This tool uses static historical risk data, NOT real-time information. It does not provide current weather alerts, flood warnings, fire advisories, or emergency notifications. For real-time information, please check NOAA Weather, your local emergency management agency, or official alert systems like FEMA's IPAWS.
Can I use this for insurance or legal decisions?
No. This tool is for general informational purposes only and should NOT be used for insurance underwriting, policy decisions, property disclosure, legal liability assessment, or any official purpose. Insurance premiums and coverage are determined by insurers using their own proprietary models and official FEMA flood maps. Consult qualified insurance professionals for coverage decisions.
Where does the data come from?
Risk indices are derived from historical data sources including FEMA flood designations, NOAA weather patterns, state fire hazard assessments, and census-based exposure estimates. Data represents long-term patterns (typically 10-30 years of history) and may be 1-3 years old. Specific neighborhoods within a city may have very different risk profiles than the city-wide average.
How should I interpret a higher vs lower index?
A higher index (60-100) suggests greater historical exposure to that hazard type, meaning the city has experienced more frequent or severe events of that type in the past. A lower index (0-39) suggests below-average historical exposure. However, even 'low risk' areas can experience disasters, and 'high risk' areas may go years without incidents. These are relative comparisons, not guarantees.
Why doesn't this include earthquakes, tornadoes, or hurricanes?
This version focuses on flood and wildfire risk, which are among the most common and costly natural hazards in the US. Future versions may include additional hazards. For earthquake risk, consult USGS hazard maps. For tornado and hurricane risk, check NOAA Storm Prediction Center and National Hurricane Center resources.
How is the combined risk index calculated?
The combined risk index uses a weighted formula: (Flood Risk × 0.5 + Wildfire Risk × 0.5) × 0.6 + Population Exposure × 0.2 + Housing Exposure × 0.2. This gives equal weight to both hazard types by default, with exposure factors accounting for 40% of the score. The 'hazard focus' options shift weighting to 80/20 for flood or wildfire emphasis.
Can I compare any city in the US?
This tool includes data for major US cities and metropolitan areas. If a city is not in our database, estimated values based on regional averages will be shown with a warning. For smaller cities or rural areas, data may be less accurate. We recommend checking FEMA flood maps and state fire hazard resources for specific properties.
What should I do if I'm concerned about disaster risk?
For real-time concerns, contact your local emergency management agency or check official weather and hazard alerts. For long-term planning: (1) Research FEMA flood maps for your specific address, (2) Check state fire hazard maps if applicable, (3) Review your insurance coverage with a licensed agent, (4) Create a family emergency plan and go-bag, (5) Consider mitigation measures appropriate to your location.
How often is the data updated?
This tool uses static historical data that is updated periodically, typically annually. The data represents long-term risk patterns rather than current conditions. For the most current risk assessments, consult official sources like FEMA, NOAA, and your state's emergency management agency.
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