Withdrawal Rate & Retirement Longevity Simulator
Test a simple withdrawal pattern (for example a 4%-style rule) against a basic return and inflation assumption to see how long a portfolio might last in this educational model.
This is an educational simulator to help you understand withdrawal patterns, not personalized retirement advice or a guarantee of outcomes.
Last updated: February 9, 2026
The Risk of Running Out Before You Run Out of Time
The withdrawal longevity calculator answers the question that haunts every retiree: will my money last as long as I do? Unlike saving, where you control how much goes in, retirement is a race between depletion and death—and outliving your savings is a real risk.
The danger isn't dramatic. It's quiet math. If you withdraw 5% annually but only earn 4% returns, your portfolio shrinks every year. Add inflation adjustments and the gap widens faster. What feels comfortable at 65 becomes terrifying at 85 when the account statement shows $47,000 instead of $470,000.
Enter your starting balance, planned withdrawal, expected return, and inflation. The calculator shows exactly when depletion occurs—or whether your portfolio can sustain indefinitely. The goal: find a withdrawal rate that balances living well now against not outliving your money.
How Withdrawal Rates Change Your Outcome
| Withdrawal Rate | Annual Amount ($1M) | Longevity (5% return, 2.5% inflation) |
|---|---|---|
| 3% | $30,000/year | Lasts 45+ years (effectively perpetual) |
| 4% | $40,000/year | Lasts ~33 years |
| 5% | $50,000/year | Lasts ~24 years |
| 6% | $60,000/year | Lasts ~19 years |
The difference between 4% and 5% isn't just $10,000/year—it's nearly a decade of portfolio life. Small rate changes compound dramatically over retirement.
Two Retirement Scenarios
Example 1: Traditional Retiree Using 4% Rule
Setup: $1,000,000 starting balance, $40,000/year withdrawal (inflation-adjusted), 5% expected return, 2.5% inflation, 30-year horizon.
Result: Portfolio lasts 33 years. At year 30, balance is approximately $310,000. Total withdrawn over 30 years: ~$1.75 million (inflation adjustments add up).
What this reveals: The 4% rule works here with a 3-year buffer. But this assumes constant 5% returns—real markets fluctuate. Bad early years could shorten this significantly. Consider this a baseline, not a guarantee.
Example 2: Early Retiree at 45 with 50-Year Need
Setup: $1,500,000 starting balance, $52,500/year withdrawal (3.5%, inflation-adjusted), 5% expected return, 2.5% inflation, 50-year horizon.
Result: Portfolio depletes by year 43—when this retiree is 88. Even at 3.5%, a 50-year horizon pushes limits. Dropping to 3% ($45,000) extends longevity to 55+ years.
What this reveals: Early retirees face compounding uncertainty. The difference between 3% and 3.5% is $7,500/year in spending but 12+ years of portfolio life. That's the tradeoff: live slightly leaner now or risk running out at 88.
What Drains Your Portfolio Faster
Ignoring inflation adjustments. Taking $40,000 every year sounds sustainable until you realize it buys 30% less in year 15. Most retirees need inflation-adjusted withdrawals, which increases draw on the portfolio over time.
Underestimating healthcare costs. Medicare doesn't cover everything. Long-term care runs $50,000-$100,000/year. Medical inflation often exceeds general inflation. Build extra buffer specifically for healthcare.
Forgetting taxes. A $40,000 withdrawal from a traditional 401(k) might net you $32,000 after taxes. Plan your withdrawal rate based on after-tax income needs, not gross amounts.
Overconfident return assumptions. Planning on 7% returns and getting 4% reality shortens portfolio life by a decade. Use conservative assumptions—if markets beat them, you get a bonus.
No flexibility. Rigid spending during down markets accelerates depletion. Retirees who cut 10-15% during crashes dramatically improve long-term survival odds.
How This Projection Works
- Returns applied as constant annual percentage—real markets fluctuate
- Inflation adjusts withdrawals upward each year (if selected)
- No taxes, fees, or RMDs (required minimum distributions) modeled
- Depletion occurs when balance after withdrawal reaches zero
This shows one simplified scenario with constant returns. Real outcomes vary with market performance, especially the sequence of returns in early retirement years. Use this to stress-test different withdrawal rates, not to predict exact outcomes.
Sources
For Educational Purposes Only - Not Financial Advice
This calculator provides estimates for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, tax, investment, or legal advice. Results are based on the information you provide and current tax laws, which may change. Always consult with a qualified CPA, tax professional, or financial advisor for advice specific to your personal situation. Tax rates and limits shown should be verified with official IRS.gov sources.